Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? 🔻 The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950. That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war. We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s “provocations.” In other words, we do not see the war preparation themes in North Korean media appearing since the beginning of last year as typical bluster from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). 🔻 The first obvious signs that a decision had been made and a decisive break with the past was underway came in the summer and autumn of 2021, apparently the result of a reevaluation in Pyongyang of shifts in the international landscape and signs—at least to the North Koreans—that the United States was in global retreat. This shift in perspective provided the foundation for a grand realignment in the North’s approach, a strategic reorientation toward China and Russia that was already well underway by the time of the Putin–Xi summit of February 2022 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are few signs that relations with China have moved very far, and, in fact, signs of real cooling in China-DPRK relations. However, ties with Russia developed steadily, especially in the military area, as underscored by the visit of the Russian Defense Minister in July and the Putin–Kim summit in the Russian Far East last September. 🔻 The North’s view that the global tides were running in its favor probably fed into decisions in Pyongyang about both the need and opportunity—and perhaps the timing—toward a military solution to the Korean question. At the start of 2023, the war preparations theme started appearing regularly in high-level North Korean pronouncements for domestic consumption. At one point, Kim Jong Un even resurrected language calling for “preparations for a revolutionary war for accomplishing…reunification.” Along with that, in March, authoritative articles in the party daily signaled a fundamentally and dangerously new approach to the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea), introducing formulations putting South Korea beyond the pale, outside what could be considered the true Korea, and thus, as a legitimate target for the North’s military might. At the plenum last month, Kim made that shift crystal clear, declaring that “north-south relations have been completely fixed into the relations between two states hostile to each other and the relations between two belligerent states, not the consanguineous or homogenous ones any more.”

Updated graphic of Iran & Houthi related maritime events, visual lists vessels along with type of incidents reported by maritime security organizations in the region (recent incidents highlighted red)

U.S. Conducts Strikes in Yemen as Houthi Attacks Against International Shipping Continue | CENTCOM 🔶️ On Jan. 16 at approximately 1:45 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants launched an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into international shipping lanes in the Southern Red Sea. M/V Zografia, a Maltese flagged bulk carrier reported they were struck but seaworthy and were continuing their Red Sea transit. No injuries were reported. 🔶️ Earlier in the day at approximately, 4:15 a.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Forces struck and destroyed four Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

Did Biden warn Houthis of attack before air strikes? Informed sources told Sky News Arabia that the United States informed the Houthis before carrying out air strikes on their sites in Yemen. We know from the Wall Street Journal that the Houthis were prepped for the attack. Maritime executives have been told by Western diplomats that targets would likely include missile and drone launch sites, radars and weapons depots around the Yemeni cities of Hodeida and Hajjah. Infrastructure in the capital San’a is also on the list of possible targets, the executives said Not sure why maritime execs needed to be told this ahead of time. Why not just put out press releases of target locations? Houthi forces have transported some weapons and equipment and fortified others in anticipation of a strike by the U.S. and its allies, a U.S. defense official and a person close to the Houthis said. The Houthis have stockpiled their missiles in bunkers built by former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh in San’a, a densely populated area, said the person close to the Houthis. This is the same playbook as Hamas, but there’s nothing unique there. It’s how Islamic terrorists operate. But did the Biden administration tell the Houthis what our targets would be? It’s not such a crazy idea, because Obama used to tell ISIS where we would bomb. The war effort involved dropping leaflets warning that we would be bombing. The Houthis claim that only 5 of their Jihadists were killed in the U.S.-U.K. airstrikes. Who knows if that’s true, but it would be a plausible number if they were told ahead of time to expect air strikes on particular targets. That way Biden gets to put on a show of force without “escalating” the conflict. From the D.C. position, that’s a win-win. From the American position, it’s treason.