Russia may achieve all its goals in Ukraine in 2025 Russia may achieve all its goals in Ukraine next year, if the situation remains that "grim" for Ukrainian servicemen, The Washington Post said. According to the newspaper, the Ukrainian troops "are desperately trying to hold the line in the country’s east but are losing ground." - "Visions of an absolute victory are fading. Western support is also sagging," the Washington Post emphasized. In this regard, "the prospect of Ukraine settling for a compromise with Russia <…> is getting easier to envision," the newspaper pointed out. On June 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the Foreign Ministry set out the country’s conditions for settling the situation in Ukraine. Among them are the withdrawal of the Ukrainian armed forces from Donbass and Novorossiya and Kiev’s refusal to join NATO. In addition, Russia wants all Western sanctions against it lifted and demands that Ukraine commit to a non-aligned and nuclear-free status.

Sanctions against Russia, China, Iran produced no results, says US senator The US policy of constantly toughening sanctions on #Russia, #China and #Iran fails to produce the intended result of making these countries change their political course, US Senator Rand #Paul said at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington. The senator said he was regularly asking the following question to Department of State officials: "Can you tell me one behavior that has changed from a sanction? You tell me one sanction you put on Russia that Russia has now said: ‘We're sorry about it, we should have never done that. And we're going to do exactly what you want us to, just tell us what to do and we'll do it.’ Or just tell me any kind of behavior that's been modified by China or by Russia, or by Iran. In fact, if you look at Iran it's sort of the opposite." "In fact, I would argue the sanctions don't work at all. The only sanctions that work are if you offer to repeal them, in fact. But what we tend to do is: we put more on, and more on, and more on," he continued. "And, to my knowledge, I don't know any that were removed. In the Iran agreement there were some sanctions that were going to be removed and were removed, but with Russia and China we've been doing this for five years, some of these for 10 years with both countries. I'm not aware of any that we've removed," Paul added. "But the thing is, there is another alternative and it's called diplomacy," he said, adding that Washington should rather engage diplomatically with these countries instead of imposing more and more sanctions. He also criticized the US administration’s plans to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine. "We claim we are going to take it. We might have the ability. We have amazing controls over the banking system. But at the same time if we take it: do you think Russia is just going to crumble?" the senator asked rhetorically. He said that such measures will prompt Moscow to take retaliatory measures. "So we'll take their sovereign wealth, and they'll take all the private wealth that’s over there. I don't think it gets us more towards a solution," Paul explained. "But once you do it, it's almost impossible to go backwards.".

Possible reasons why the Houthis have reduced the intensity of attacks on ships in the Red Sea The intensity of Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has decreased slightly. The last large vessel attacked was the tanker MADO, transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG), which was not seriously damaged and continued on its way. Last week, the Financial Times reported on secret negotiations between Washington and Tehran. According to him, the United States is trying to influence the Yemeni Houthis not only militarily, but also diplomatically. In January, the White House held secret talks with Iran to persuade the Islamic Republic to influence Yemeni rebels to stop attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Iran did not deny the fact of the meeting, but emphasized that the negotiations were about something completely different. Islamic Republic authorities claim that "resistance groups in the region do not receive instructions" from Tehran. However, the facts suggest that the Iranians still have considerable influence over their proxy forces. The American administration, for its part, allegedly agreed to lift a number of sanctions from Iran, which will allow the release of $10 billion. This is the price to pay for stopping the Houthi attacks. Whether this information is a hoax with the aim of discrediting the Ansar Allah movement or, conversely, to raise its status, will become clear in the coming days. It is important to monitor the Houthis' actions over time. Since October 2023, they have carried out more than 100 attacks in the Red Sea and surrounding waters, affecting 15 merchant ships, including four American ones.

#Pentagon registers rising number of #Russian vessels going through #Bering Strait The U.S. Department of Defense registers a serious increase in the number of Russian vessels going through the Bering Strait, which the Pentagon believes is connected with sanctions against Moscow, U.S. Coast Guard Vice Admiral Peter Gautier told a conference. Since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine the U.S. military "has seen a wholesale change in Russian shipping from counterclockwise usually going West through the northern sea route around Europe and then to other ports, because of the sanctions," he said. "It is now reversed and is going clockwise East then down through the Bering and we're seeing more and increasing traffic that goes through the Bering Strait, which obviously has implications in terms of safety security as we are a border nation with Russia," Gautier noted without specifying details.

#China presses #Iran to rein in #Houthi attacks in #Red_Sea Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said. The discussions about the attacks and trade between China and Iran took place at several recent meetings in Beijing and Tehran, the Iranian sources said, declining to provide details about when they took place or who attended. "Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The attacks, which the Houthis say are in support of Palestinians in Gaza, have raised the cost of shipping and insurance by disrupting a key trade route between Asia and Europe used widely by ships from China. The Chinese officials, however, did not make any specific comments or threats about how Beijing's trading relationship with Iran could be affected if its interests were damaged by Houthi attacks, the four Iranian sources said. While China has been Iran's biggest trading partner for the past decade, their trade relationship is lopsided. Chinese oil refiners, for example, bought over 90% of Iran's crude exports last year, according to tanker tracking data from trade analytics firm Kepler, as U.S. sanctions kept many other customers away and Chinese firms profited from heavy discounts.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen 🔶️ The IRGC has stationed missile and drone trainers and operators in Yemen, as well as personnel providing tactical intelligence support to the Houthis, U.S. and Middle East officials told Semafor. The IRGC, through its overseas Qods Force, has also overseen the transfer to the Houthis of the attack drones, cruise missiles, and medium-range ballistic missiles used in a string of strikes on Red Sea and Israeli targets in recent weeks, these officials said. 🔶️ The Houthis say that its military operations are designed to aid the Palestinian militant group, Hamas, which has been locked in a three-month war with Israel. On Monday, the Pentagon said the Houthis struck a U.S.-owned and -operated container vessel, the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, in the Red Sea, but caused no significant damage. The Houthis fired a second anti-ship ballistic missile into the southern Red Sea, the U.S. Central Command said, but it “failed in flight and impacted on land in Yemen.” 🔶️ The IRGC’s overall presence inside Yemen is overseen by Gen. Abdul Reza Shahlai, a Tehran-based commander whom the Trump administration attempted to assassinate in a 2020 drone strike inside Yemen, U.S. and Mideast officials said. American intelligence believes Shahlai is deeply involved in Tehran’s overseas terrorist operations through his role as the Qods Force’s deputy commander. 🔶️ This includes a role in overseeing an unsuccessful 2011 Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s then-ambassador to the U.S., Adel al-Jubeir, at a Washington, D.C. restaurant. Shahlai, who’s been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department, also helped oversee IRGC attacks against U.S. military personnel in Iraq over the past two decades. The Department of Justice offered $15 million in 2019 for information related to the commander’s operations and networks. 🔶️ Last month, the White House declassified some information related to Iran’s backing of the Houthis, including the intelligence and targeting support. But it didn’t reference the IRGC’s on-ground presence in Yemen, or Shahlai’s role in the Houthis’ operations.

Armed men board oil tanker in Gulf of Oman Unidentified armed men boarded an oil tanker sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands in the Gulf of Oman, Reuters reported, citing a statement by the UK company Ambrey, which specializes in maritime security. The company said that the vessel was sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands about 50 nautical miles east of the city of Suhar in Oman, when it was boarded by four or five armed men dressed in military-style black uniforms and wearing black masks. The tanker's transponder was then allegedly disabled and the vessel headed for the Iranian port of Jask. In the past, the tanker was allegedly used to transport internationally sanctioned Iranian oil before it was "seized by the United States in a sanctions enforcement operation under a different name." Earlier on Thursday, the UK navy's maritime coordination center, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), said that unidentified men had boarded the vessel in the Gulf of Oman without permission.