Dam of discord: an escalating conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt

The crisis surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam escalated at the end of 2023. Throughout the year, the governments of Egypt and Sudan have urged Ethiopia to reach a compromise during the dam negotiations to protect the rights and interests of all three countries. The parties remain concerned that Ethiopia is controlling the flow of the Nile, which could harm agricultural interests and water security in already arid regions.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, on the other hand, stated that neither side would be at a disadvantage and that the hydroelectric power station itself would only bring benefits. It was planned for the agreements to be concluded before the end of the year.

However, on December 20, the office of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi released a statement announcing the failure of the fourth round of negotiations.

Two blocs-the Saudi-led, and the UAE-led-will utilize MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.

Saudi-led bloc, including Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and now increasingly coordinating with Somalia, Turkey, and Qatar, will react to the UAE-led bloc, with robust participation from Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The implications are far-reaching: Besides domestic politics in Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia, and potentially in Kenya, geopolitical implications could reach beyond the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, linking the Middle East with North Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Sahel.

Seen in light of the escalating maritime threats, partly due to the Gaza war, the effectiveness of US's "Operation Prosperity Guardian" could be curtailed.

Amid all the Red Sea drama, Ethiopia now appears to have access to the sea through an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland.

🔶️ Detailed negotiations to reach a formal agreement will be concluded in a month, said Redwan Hussein, national security adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

🔶️ The MoU will enable Ethiopia to lease access to the Red Sea from Somaliland to use as a military base and for commercial purposes for 50 years, Hussein said. Ethiopia can also build infrastructure and a corridor, he said at a briefing on Monday in the capital Addis Ababa attended by Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi.

🔶️ In October, Abiy in a televised lecture identified access to the ocean as a strategic objective and warned that failure to secure it could lead to conflict before toning down his comments.

🔶️ Abiy’s remarks drew rebukes from Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti, all of whom described their sovereignty and territorial integrity as sacrosanct and not open for discussion.

🔶️ The Horn of Africa nation lost direct access to the sea in 1993, when Eritrea gained independence after a three-decade war. Its main trade route now runs along roads and a railway that link the capital, Addis Ababa, to a port in Djibouti, one of five neighbors with coastlines that include Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan and Kenya.

🔶️ More than a fifth of the world’s global commerce transited the Red Sea that connects the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal before attacks on commercial vessels by Houthi rebels led some ships to re-route around Africa to avoid the violence.

🔶️ Amid all the Red Sea drama, Ethiopia now appears to have access to the sea through an agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland.