Trump has 64% chance of winning US presidential election, say bookmakers US #Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has a 64% chance of winning the #presidential election, the Polymarket prediction market platform said. According to it, bets on Trump's victory stand at $40.9 million, while bets on the incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris amount to $22.4 million. The Predict political betting site said, in turn, that the billionaire has a 61% chance of winning, while his likely rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, has a 39% chance.