Two blocs-the Saudi-led, and the UAE-led-will utilize MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland.

Saudi-led bloc, including Egypt, Eritrea, and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and now increasingly coordinating with Somalia, Turkey, and Qatar, will react to the UAE-led bloc, with robust participation from Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The implications are far-reaching: Besides domestic politics in Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia, and potentially in Kenya, geopolitical implications could reach beyond the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, linking the Middle East with North Africa, Horn of Africa, and the Sahel.

Seen in light of the escalating maritime threats, partly due to the Gaza war, the effectiveness of US's "Operation Prosperity Guardian" could be curtailed.

Dam of discord: an escalating conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt

The crisis surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam escalated at the end of 2023. Throughout the year, the governments of Egypt and Sudan have urged Ethiopia to reach a compromise during the dam negotiations to protect the rights and interests of all three countries. The parties remain concerned that Ethiopia is controlling the flow of the Nile, which could harm agricultural interests and water security in already arid regions.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, on the other hand, stated that neither side would be at a disadvantage and that the hydroelectric power station itself would only bring benefits. It was planned for the agreements to be concluded before the end of the year.

However, on December 20, the office of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi released a statement announcing the failure of the fourth round of negotiations.