US, UK, French citizens see World War III coming, poll reveals

Residents of the United States, Great Britain, and France increasingly believe that a third world war could break out within the next five years, according to a poll conducted by the research company Public First for Politico.

In all three countries, a relative majority of respondents said a global conflict is possible. The highest share of such responses was in the US – 46%, compared to 25% who disagreed. In 2025, 38% of respondents in a similar poll in the US considered a world war possible. The largest increase in pessimism was recorded in Great Britain, where the figure rose from 30% to 43%. The survey was also conducted in Germany and Canada. Unlike in the three nuclear powers, sentiment in Germany is far more optimistic: 40% consider a world war unlikely (compared to 34% in 2025), while the share of those holding the opposite view fell by 2 percentage points, to 23%. Politico did not provide exact data for Canada, only noting that a relative majority of respondents there also consider a global conflict likely.

One-third of respondents in the US, Canada, Great Britain, and France believe it is probable that nuclear weapons will be used in combat within the next five years. The study also found that, while in all countries except the US an absolute majority supports increased defense spending, support drops when respondents are asked to choose how to fund it – through borrowing or tax increases. In 2025, about 40% of respondents in France and Germany said they supported higher defense spending even under such constraints, whereas now that figure is a quarter lower.

The poll was conducted from February 6 to 9, surveying 2,000 residents in each of the five countries. The margin of error is estimated at 2 percentage points.

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