If the regime survives, the reality for Israel and the region will remain largely the same as it has been since 1979. Iran will continue to threaten Israel and project power through its network of proxies across the Middle East. Arab countries will continue balancing between confronting Iranian influence while also maintaining their traditional hostility toward Israel.

Let us also not be naïve. In some parts of the Arab world there are leaders and movements that prefer such an outcome, because the continued existence of the Iranian threat allows them to preserve their longstanding hostility toward Israel and the Jewish people while avoiding deeper regional cooperation.

But if the Iranian regime falls, the strategic map of the Middle East could change dramatically.

Without the revolutionary regime driving conflict and proxy warfare, Arab states may find themselves forced to reassess their approach to Israel. Cooperation, already growing quietly in some areas, could become more open and strategic. The region could begin shifting from ideological confrontation toward practical partnerships.

For the Arab Gulf states in particular, regime change in Iran could mean the possibility of a different Middle East—one focused less on confrontation and more on stability and prosperity. A region where people wake up in the morning, go to work, and focus on improving their lives rather than preparing for the next conflict.

In such a scenario, the forces of fanaticism that have fueled decades of violence would lose their central pillar of support. The Middle East could finally begin moving toward a more pragmatic and cooperative future.

For now, however, the outcome remains uncertain. The war may determine whether the region continues along the familiar road of tension and hostility—or turns toward a new and very different direction.

***