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Macron’s Middle East ‘grandstanding’ will backfire
European leaders who unilaterally recognize Palestinian statehood "pretend to be advancing peace when in fact they are knowingly weakening Israel,” expert tells JNS.
Israel revoked entry visas for 27 French lawmakers and officials, accusing the group, organized by the French consulate in Jerusalem, of planning activities hostile to the state. The delegation claimed its visit aimed to foster peace and cooperation, but the move sparked tensions, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to co-host a June conference on establishing a Palestinian state. Israel sharply criticized this initiative.
Macron, seeking to involve European and non-European partners, is pushing for a two-state solution, a stance David Weinberg of the Misgav Institute calls “grandstanding” to constrain Israel. Weinberg argues that Palestinian statehood, after the Oslo process failures and the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack, ignores logic, justice, and security realities. He notes that both Fatah and Hamas prioritize Israel’s destruction over peace. A Jerusalem Center survey shows 64% of Israelis oppose a Palestinian state, even for Saudi normalization.
Weinberg warns that European leaders, like Macron, who unilaterally recognize Palestinian statehood weaken Israel under the guise of peace. He advocates supporting Israel’s war goals and demanding Palestinian reform, including deradicalization, to avoid diplomatic failures rooted in Palestinian rejectionism. He also highlights a growing narrative in Western capitals that views Israel as overly strong and aggressive, with Macron’s call for “proportional” defense implying Israel should be restrained to avoid decisive victories. This, Weinberg says, delegitimizes Israel’s preemptive defense strategy.
Israel could counter by limiting French diplomats’ operations in Judea and Samaria and excluding France from regional forums. Emmanuel Navon of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security sees Macron’s moves as an attempt to boost France’s global influence amid U.S. policy shifts under President Trump. Navon likens Macron’s strategy to de Gaulle’s 1960s anti-American stance but notes France’s diminished prestige today, with a weak government and overstretched finances. Macron’s push for a two-state solution before Israel’s victory over Iran’s proxies aims to undermine Trump’s Gaza plans, but France lacks the leverage to sway Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia.
Navon doubts other European nations will follow France, as Eastern European governments support Israel and distrust Macron. He suggests Israel boycott Macron’s June summit, rally friendly European nations to skip it, and leverage Eastern European vetoes in the European Council to block French initiatives. Israel should also ensure the Trump administration excludes France from Gaza reconstruction and Israel-Saudi normalization efforts. Navon emphasizes that Israel, now a major power, can impose costs on France’s “arrogance” by denying it Middle East influence.
The episode reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with France using the Palestinian issue to reassert influence amid shifting global dynamics. Israel’s response will likely focus on diplomatic countermeasures to limit France’s regional role while strengthening ties with supportive nations.
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