Several factors, including Israel's internal political dynamics, may undermine the agreement with Hamas on the release of hostages held in Gaza and the establishment of a ceasefire in the enclave.
It is quite difficult to predict how long it will last. Although it was agreed to gradually resolve the issue of hostages, who will be sent back to Israel, one must consider the composition of the Israeli government, which includes far-right factions strongly opposing ending the conflict, ongoing since October 7, 2023, without achieving the complete eradication of Hamas, a decisive Israeli victory, and the formation of a government entirely disconnected from this group.
Several factors that "might derail this agreement. This primarily involves Israel’s internal political situation, which remains deeply divided, as the coalition government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces strong influence from radical right-wing elements.
"This primarily pertains to National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who argue that this agreement fails to align with Israel's strategic objective of fully dismantling Hamas in Gaza. If they resign, the government could collapse, prompting Israel to face the prospect of early elections once again, potentially disrupting the deal."
However, if the incoming US administration firmly supports the deal, "the enormous influence they [the Americans] wield over Israel could ensure its continuation in some form."
"There is also a risk of provocations by extreme militants in Gaza. If such incidents occur—whether through escalation or armed confrontation—they could also threaten the agreement’s viability. Nonetheless, there is hope that it will hold."
Freezing the conflict is a shared objective of both the outgoing US administration under Biden and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, both of whom pushed for the deal’s finalization before the inauguration.