Cardinals Parolin, Tagle likely to become pope, reports betting agency

Cardinals Pietro #Parolin and Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle have the best chance of ascending to the throne of St. Peter after the upcoming elections, data of the Polymarket betting agency showed.

Polymarket estimates the chances of victory for Italian Parolin, who has held the position of secretary of state of the Vatican since 2013, at 35%. The election of the Filipino Tagle is less likely, it is predicted with a probability of 23%, while on April 21 it was about 35%.

70-year-old Parolin is one of the most experienced diplomats of the Holy See and plays an important role in Vatican's foreign relations. According to Newsweek, he also participated in negotiations with China and the governments of the Middle East. The current secretary of state is seen as a centrist candidate who takes a less liberal position on some issues than the late Pope Francis. For instance, the cardinal called legalization of same-sex marriage in Ireland in 2015 "a defeat for all mankind."

At 67, Tagle is one of the youngest candidates for the Holy See. The Filipino, according to the magazine, was a confidant in the inner circle of the deceased pontiff. From 2011 to 2019, he was archbishop of Manila, and after that prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, one of the abolished divisions of the Roman Curia, which dealt with evangelization and missionary issues. Tagle belongs to the progressive wing and advocates for inclusivity. Previously he criticized the Catholic Church for being too harsh towards divorced couples and people in same-sex relationships.

Cardinals may only convene to elect a new pope no earlier than after nine days of mourning after the funeral, or two weeks after death, meaning that the event can start no sooner than May 10. Theoretically, 135 cardinals can claim the papacy.

Apr. 7, 2025: President Trump Statements

Nota: US Crude Oil Futures Drop Below $60 per Barrel to Lowest Level in 4 Years

"Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

"Countries from all over the World are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate! They have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other “things.” It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!!"

"The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!"

"Oil prices are down, interest rates are down (the slow moving Fed should cut rates!), food prices are down, there is NO INFLATION, and the long time abused USA is bringing in Billions of Dollars a week from the abusing countries on Tariffs that are already in place. This is despite the fact that the biggest abuser of them all, China, whose markets are crashing, just raised its Tariffs by 34%, on top of its long term ridiculously high Tariffs (Plus!), not acknowledging my warning for abusing countries not to retaliate. They’ve made enough, for decades, taking advantage of the Good OL’ USA! Our past “leaders” are to blame for allowing this, and so much else, to happen to our Country. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"

Apr. 7, 2025 - Illustration for global #market #crash.

FLOP! - US, UK do not sign final declaration of AI summit in Paris

The United States and the United Kingdom were not among the signatories of the Paris #AI Action Summit’s final declaration, according to the document, published by the Elysee Palace. The final declaration, signed by 61 countries including China, France and India, calls for "ensuring AI is open, inclusive, transparent, ethical, safe, secure and trustworthy." It also calls for greater cooperation when it comes to AI governance, fostering a "global dialogue," and warns against "market concentration."

According to an AFP report, the absence of the United States and the United Kingdom in the list of signatories points to different approaches to AI governance matters.

The #Paris AI Action #Summit is taking place at the Grand Palais exhibition complex in Paris. Its co-chairs are French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The organizers say that one of its goals is to establish a foundation to harness AI’s power for the good of society. Paris expects this fund to raise over 2.5 billion euro for its projects within the next five years.

Oil price to fall to $50 per barrel, reports WSJ citing Riyadh

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has said that #oil prices may fall to $50 per barrel unless a number of OPEC+ nations adhere to agreed output limits, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported citing sources.

This comes amid an online meeting of the #OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee aimed at estimating the current situation on the oil market, which is taking place now. Its participants intend to discuss the issue of weakening output restrictions in December, according to the publication.
#Riyadh has warned a number of countries, including Iraq, against an increase in oil production, indicating that they should observe their OPEC+ commitments.

The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for December delivery rose above $76 per barrel on London's ICE earlier on Wednesday for the first time since September 3, 2024. The price of oil is rising amid an escalation in the Middle East.

Trump has 64% chance of winning US presidential election, say bookmakers

US #Republican Party candidate Donald Trump has a 64% chance of winning the #presidential election, the Polymarket prediction market platform said.

According to it, bets on Trump's victory stand at $40.9 million, while bets on the incumbent US Vice President Kamala Harris amount to $22.4 million. The Predict political betting site said, in turn, that the billionaire has a 61% chance of winning, while his likely rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, has a 39% chance.

Von der Leyen vows to turn EU into defense union

Ursula von der #Leyen who hopes to be re-elected as European Commission (EC) President, has vowed to transform the #EU into a #defense bloc in her political program published by the #EC.

"Our work in the next five years will be focused on building a true European Defense Union," the document said. Von der Leyen added that EU countries "will always retain responsibility for their own troops, from doctrine to deployment, but there is a lot Europe can do to support and coordinate efforts to strengthen the defense industrial base, innovation and the Single Market."

Cargo ships drown in extra costs due to Red Sea crisis

Ocean freight shipping rates are set to increase further in early February amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis. According to the Xeneta ocean freight rate benchmarking platform, market average short-term rates from the Far East to the Mediterranean are set to increase to $6,507 per FEU.

Meanwhile, rates from the Far East to Northern Europe are set to increase to $5,106 per FEU, and rates from the Far East to the US East Coast are set to rise to $6,119 per FEU. This is an increase of 243%, 235%, and 146%, respectively, since the Red Sea crisis escalated in mid-December.

Peter Sand, Xeneta's Chief Analyst, said carriers are trying to readjust services to compensate for the additional sailing time around the Cape of Good Hope. For example, they are cutting journeys short and increasing sailing speed. He added that “the Red Sea crisis is causing a capacity rather than a demand issue, as we saw during the pandemic. The massive uncertainty in the market has brought imbalance and instability.”

Houthis promise not to attack Russian, Chinese, German ships in Red Sea

A senior Ansar Allah (the Houthi) official has promised that the Houthis will not attack Russian, Chinese, and German ships in the Red Sea.
"Chinese and Russian ships are not in the crosshairs. They are not our targets. As well as German (vessels)," Mohammed al-Bahiti, a member of the Ansar Allah politburo, said in an interview with the RTL and NTV television channels. According to al-Bahiti, this applies to ships that are not linked with "Israel’s Zionist regime."

At the same time, according to NTV, the Houthi official said that the rebel movement would expand its military actions after the United States and United Kingdom’s strikes on targets in Yemen. "Attacks are possible on warships as well," he warned. "Our military operations will continue until the genocide in Gaza is stopped and until the population receives food, medicine, and fuel. Our goal is not to sink cargo ships but rather to force them to change their routes to increase companies’ economic losses," he explained, adding that this is meant to increase pressure on Israel. "All countries must pool efforts with us to stop crimes <…> in Gaza. Our intentions are true," he stressed.

Impact of the Red Sea crisis on global logistics and production

Ongoing attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have led major automakers such as Tesla and Volvo Car to temporarily halt production in Europe due to a shortage of components. This event highlights the direct impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions on regional industrial operations. According to Tesla representatives, production of most vehicles at the Berlin plant will be suspended from January 29 to February 11. Tesla attributes this to a shortage of parts resulting from ships being rerouted through Africa's southernmost point.

The increased travel times have disrupted the supply chain, causing delays in components and impacting the production of electric vehicles assembled for the European market. And this is just one of the episodes that have been announced.