Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? 🔻 The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950. That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war. We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s “provocations.” In other words, we do not see the war preparation themes in North Korean media appearing since the beginning of last year as typical bluster from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). 🔻 The first obvious signs that a decision had been made and a decisive break with the past was underway came in the summer and autumn of 2021, apparently the result of a reevaluation in Pyongyang of shifts in the international landscape and signs—at least to the North Koreans—that the United States was in global retreat. This shift in perspective provided the foundation for a grand realignment in the North’s approach, a strategic reorientation toward China and Russia that was already well underway by the time of the Putin–Xi summit of February 2022 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are few signs that relations with China have moved very far, and, in fact, signs of real cooling in China-DPRK relations. However, ties with Russia developed steadily, especially in the military area, as underscored by the visit of the Russian Defense Minister in July and the Putin–Kim summit in the Russian Far East last September. 🔻 The North’s view that the global tides were running in its favor probably fed into decisions in Pyongyang about both the need and opportunity—and perhaps the timing—toward a military solution to the Korean question. At the start of 2023, the war preparations theme started appearing regularly in high-level North Korean pronouncements for domestic consumption. At one point, Kim Jong Un even resurrected language calling for “preparations for a revolutionary war for accomplishing…reunification.” Along with that, in March, authoritative articles in the party daily signaled a fundamentally and dangerously new approach to the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea), introducing formulations putting South Korea beyond the pale, outside what could be considered the true Korea, and thus, as a legitimate target for the North’s military might. At the plenum last month, Kim made that shift crystal clear, declaring that “north-south relations have been completely fixed into the relations between two states hostile to each other and the relations between two belligerent states, not the consanguineous or homogenous ones any more.”

North Korean missile travels 500 km, reaches maximum altitude of 50 km, reports Japan's top brass The ballistic missile launched by North Korea on Sunday flew 500 km and reached a maximum altitude of 50 km, the Japanese Defense Ministry said in a statement. "The missile traveled at least 500 km and reached a maximum altitude of 50 km and fell into the Sea of Japan outside our country's exclusive economic zone," the ministry said, adding that Japanese authorities had "lodged a strong protest with North Korea over the incident." According to the statement, Japan "will continue to collect and analyze information in close cooperation with the United States and South Korea." North Korea fired a missile for the first time since the beginning of the year.

Escalation on the Korean Peninsula: What to Expect from a New Round of Tension 🔻This morning, the news was filled with reports of the military of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea firing over 200 artillery shells in a disputed zone in the Yellow Sea. ▪️ This event quickly made headlines, and discussions about an imminent escalation in the region started spreading online. It is worth noting that clashes between North and South Koreans have occurred in the vicinity of the Pangnen and Yeonpyeong islands in the Yellow Sea before. ▪️ While these islands officially belong to the Republic of Korea, there are disagreements regarding the surrounding waters. Pyongyang does not agree with the UN's demarcation line and regularly claims a larger area. 🔻Today, tensions were further exacerbated as military bases in Kayomori and Cape Changsan joined the fray. In response, Seoul fired twice as many shells (around 400) near North Korean territory. This led to tabloids and media outlets speculating about an impending war between the two countries. However, amidst the race for sensationalism, everyone seemed to overlook the fact that neither the DPRK nor the ROK military attacked any territories. All shells were fired into the water, causing no harm to the islands. While this action certainly increased tension, it does not warrant a war. ❗️It is worth noting that the escalation with the DPRK was provoked by the ROK Armed Forces' exercises a week prior. The North Koreans responded with a concentrated fire strike, and the South Koreans retaliated in kind. Additionally, it's possible that the ammunition was simply reaching its expiration date and needed to be disposed of. In essence, the North Korean military engaged in training activities and got rid of surplus ammunition, simultaneously testing the nerves of their neighbors. To further escalate the situation, they began active movements in the demilitarized zone between the two countries, further heightening tension in the region.

South Korean island residents ordered to evacuate over North Korea’s potential provocation Residents of the South Korea-controlled island of Yeonpyeong, which was shelled by North Korea in 2010, have been ordered to evacuate over a potential "provocation" from Pyongyang, the Yonhap news agency reported. According to the news agency, the evacuation was announced after the local authorities received an order from the South Korean military. According to preliminary data, several rounds might have been fired at the island from North Korea. According to the local authorities, no one was hurt. An exchange of artillery fire between the North and South Korean military near the Yeonpyeong Island on November 23, 2010 entailed human casualties.