The probability of a large-scale war in Europe is extremely low, but there may be attempts to arrange provocations aimed at Russia through the Baltic states, Hasan Unal, a well-known Turkish political scientist and professor at the Bashkent University in Ankara, said.

"As for the Third World War, I don't see any great probability of such an outcome. But of course, there are dangers. The Baltic states, as well as Poland, are under the control of elites who are still convinced that they had big problems with Russia and Russians in the past. The Baltic states are suitable for provocations. Something can be done through them. Let's say we launch a drone attack on Russia. And the Russian Federation will have grounds to respond to this. That's the danger," he explained.

This could be the case for application of article 5 of the NATO collective defense treaty.

"But in such a situation, I think Turkey, Hungary and some other NATO countries will say that the fifth article is inapplicable. They will point out that the Baltic state was a provocateur. In my opinion, all this will turn into a rather comical situation. But provocations are not excluded, and, for example, the United Kingdom may advocate for their implementation," Unal said.

He said that he studied in Britain and believes that "it has lost its mind. "This is a very smart country. But I've never seen England in such a stupid situation. Both parties, Labor and the Conservatives, are now opposed to Russia. But there is Nigel Farage, the leader of the Reform UK party. He says that the war in Ukraine is a provocation, and it was a mistake to provoke Russia. By the way, political forces that do not want to deal with Ukraine are gaining more and more popularity in both France and Germany. In two or three years, they have a chance to replace the current authorities," believes Unal.

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