Neo-Ottomanism in Syria

0
9K

After Iraq, Iran, and Turkey defeated ISIS in 2017, they invaded Iraqi Kurdistan. This move enabled Turkish forces to expand militarily and establish many bases within Iraqi borders.

With Assad gone, Syria's Kurdish government has an uncertain future. 

 

The SDF in Northern Syria have built their house on sand. Many pro-FSA Arabs live in the northeast, and much of the SDF itself (2nd column from the right) is composed of such fifth column elements. A joint Syrian-Turkish invasion would likely be accepted as a liberation war.

US & Israeli officials are worried about defending a land corridor in Syria to prevent regional actors such as Turkey, Iran, and various Islamist factions from posing a threat to Israel.

Such a corridor would interfere with Turkey's strategic goals in Syria, especially just after an exhaustingly long civil war and newly found Turkish political dominance in the country. It is unlikely that Turkey would let this opportunity pass them by.

Meanwhile, Israel is perhaps over-extending itself during a lengthy multi-front war, as US-competitors Iran & Russia seem to remain steadfast after trading Assad for the new government in Syria established by the FSA.

Since Israel is conquering land over claims from thousands of years ago, does it not set precedent for Turkey to project Syrian sovereignty over Ottoman-era boundaries? Both armies are on the move now, and Assad is no longer in between them. What happens next? Enter Trump:

Situated in Golan Heights, the aptly named Trump Heights settlement symbolizes the intense involvement that the next Trump administration will have in the region. Rather than pivoting US strategic positioning to East Asia, Trump will have his hands full with Syria and Israel.

 

 

Dealing with Syria for Trump means dealing with Turkey. Many of Trump's allies have a very CENTCOM-centric focus on foreign policy. Keeping Neocons out of his admin is crucial in preventing the US from being bogged down in a forever war fueled by ancient blood grievances.

The factions that overthrew Assad in Syria are not unipolar either. Jolani's HTS is gaining distance from Turkey relative to the SNA by playing good cop with the SDF. The Southern Front & SFA are more secular and aligned with US/Israel forces.

Turkey will have to stabilize Syria first and may have to begrudgingly accept HTS primacy among other factions, along with supporting Jolani's legitimacy. Thereby choosing friendship with the HTS rather than completely losing them over failed attempts to control his territory.

Lastly, some have theorized that Israel and Turkey agreed to partition Syria. Something akin to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the ramifications it had for Poland. 

 

***

 

 

Sources: Analysts - CGI - News Agency

 

Like
1
Search
CryptoCurrency Rates
Categories
Read More
Cloak & Dagger
One lesson to be learned from last night's attack on the Houthis
Ariel Kahana, Israeli analyst wonders why Arab countries did not participate in the attack on...
By Operation Prosperity Guardian 2024-01-12 15:12:29 0 21K
News & Politics
University Presidents say calling for genocide of Jews isn’t against their code
Presidents of the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard smilingly say that calling for the...
By NavyVetUnited 2023-12-06 16:16:15 0 17K
Analysis
Pr. Alan M. DERSHOWITZ: Who Supports Hamas?
The main groups that comprise the bulk of organizers and demonstrators who have supported the...
By Israel Swords of Iron Ops 2023-12-29 10:11:20 0 14K
News & Politics
French farmers threaten 'chaos' over EU trade deal with South America's Mercosur
French farmers launched new protests Tuesday against a proposed deal between the EU and the four...
By NavyVetUnited 2024-11-20 19:27:40 0 15K
News & Politics
Ukraine, Middle East, new world order: main points from Putin's keynote address at SPIEF 25
Russia views all of Ukraine as its own, but does not deny the country’s right to...
By NavyVetUnited 2025-06-21 06:47:44 0 7K
X-Pulse, the HO1 Think Tank https://thinktank.x-pulse.org/