As jihadist rebels gain ground in Syria at the expense of Iran, an analyst told The Press Service of Israel that “a quick victory” of Islamists in Syria is bad for Israel.

“A long-term conflict in Syria between pro-Turkish Sunni groups, very close to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, on the one hand, and what they call the Iranian ‘axis of resistance’ on the other hand, is good for Israel because it reduces the resources that both of them can throw into the fight against Israel,” Bar-Ilan University’s Professor of political studies Ze’ev Khanin told TPS-IL.

However, it’s hard to predict the outcome of the surprise offensive by the Sunni jihadist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which began shortly after an Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire went into effect on Wednesday morning.

HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, launched a surprise attack on Aleppo, marking the largest assault on Assad’s forces in the region since 2020. The rebels have since captured the international airport and seized control of over 75% of Aleppo’s neighborhoods. HTS also rapidly advanced into the northwest Syrian city of Idlib and were threatening Hama, overwhelming Assad’s army. Over 330 casualties have been reported.

“If Assad’s regime collapses, or weakens significantly, quickly, then instead of Iranians together with Hezbollah Israel will get Salafi, Sunni groups on its northern borders, and we are out of the frying pan into the fire,” Khanin said.

With Assad in control in Syria, Israel had an agreement with Russia, which helped the Syrian dictator, allowing Israel to fight Hezbollah sites in the country and to keep it from the territories in the Golan Height bordering Israel. Although Israel-Russia ties have been strained, first by Russian invasion to Ukraine and then by Russia’s taking Hamas’s side in the war with Israel after October 7th, the countries seem to keep relations going.

“Netanyahu and Putin seem to be talking like friends again,” Khanin said. “Israel even invited Russia to be one of the mediators on the northern border. It may be a signal that Israeli leadership is adapting to the line formally announced by Trump that he comes to end wars, not start them. If [Trump] talks to Putin, then Netanyahu can do so, too.”

However, Khanin stressed that if the rebels, backed by Turkey, establish themselves in significant areas of Syria, “Israel will need to talk to Turkey,” which will be “much harder” for Israel to do, Khanin explained.

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