When the Biden's administration lifted sanctions on Tehran, Iran's oil production rose to a six-year record.

The White House is in no hurry to introduce new restrictions, especially in an election year. Feeling this strong position, the Islamic Republic is using its moment of greatest power and influence to do things that were considered impossible just yesterday.

While Washington is introducing packages of restrictions against Russia, its hands are tied by spoils in Venezuela and Iran. These countries become the US insurance against a tightening market and rising gasoline prices in America. In fact, Iran has become a new strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) for America, says Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas.

The situation is unstable, for the oil market everything now depends on how Israel reacts and on the likelihood of an escalation cycle starting. Nevertheless, several preliminary conclusions can be drawn.

From a physical point of view, nothing has changed in the world of oil. Middle Eastern oil flows freely into the world the economy, and the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy hub, remains open to shipping. Simply put, there is no shortage of oil.

On the other hand, the Middle East is no longer the same as it was just a week ago. Everything changed dramatically overnight. The “symbolic” attack had real consequences, far greater than the military harm it caused. But the main conclusion is that Russia will win in any case. Due to tensions in the oil market, Moscow is already selling its oil for as much as $80 a barrel, well above the current market.

One of the reasons the White House turned a blind eye to Iranian oil exports is that its priority was to harm the Russian Federation. The growth of Iranian production came at an unspoken and unacknowledged cost. policy. Now Washington needs to reconsider its approach and frankly admit what or who worries it most.

Despite the riskiness of an escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, the U.S. position in Tehran was well calculated and understood, taking advantage of the window of opportunity. Biden can no longer spend from the American oil reserve; instead of an unpopular step, it is now possible to push his opponent to overproduce raw materials.

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